I remember that in the government work report at the beginning of the year, the CPI for this year was set at 4%. In the speech of Premier Wen Jiabao in the middle of the year, the CPI base was shifted up to 5%. Yesterday, the Bureau of Statistics announced that CPI data for October rose by 5.5% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. At this point, controlling inflation has begun to bear fruit.
If we do a simple calculation, by October, the cumulative value of the current baseline CPI overflow of 5% has reached 6.7%, and in the future in November and December alone, it seems that the goal set by Premier Wen Jiabao is no longer met. Too realistic. However, due to the good harvest of the autumn crops, the whole year's macro-control, and the higher base in the last two months of last year, it is still expected to see a continuous decline in the CPI in the next two months. However, if the CPI slips below 4%, it can be assumed that it has fallen from higher inflation to moderate inflation. Therefore, to control inflation is only an initial success, and next year is still a long way to go.
In the stock market, the reason why there are so many professional organizations studying inflation is to observe whether there will be fine-tuning of tight monetary policy and related adjustment policies when the high inflation starts to show signs of decline, and finally decide the position of investment. On the other hand, it is to do some corresponding pre-judgment on the performance of the industry and enterprises, and then decide on the layout in various industries and corresponding key varieties.
For listed companies, after just publishing the third quarter report, most research institutions have already started to downgrade most companies, especially some large-cap heavyweights and constituent stocks. According to statistics, the ratio has been cut by half. This aspect is related to the need for corrections by the agency at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, it is related to the higher inflation situation this year.
So what kind of industry is benefiting from higher inflation? It is now in the stage of domestic economic correction. At the same time, inflation regulation has also achieved initial results. Therefore, in terms of the future, perhaps we should conduct more detailed analysis.
The fall in CPI in October this year was mainly due to the decline in prices of agricultural products and international bulk commodities. The general investor's reaction is that the agricultural sector may turn from stronger to weaker in the future. However, after pondering about the rise of nearly a year, various related sub-industries have benefited a lot and will inevitably be reflected in the report. At the same time, the No. 1 document next year will be agricultural science and technology, and it will be even more eye-catching against this sub-sector. This is the reason why the stocks of some kind of industry in the near future are constantly rebounding and strengthening.
Conversely, for the food and beverage industry, after the long-term operation of the institutions in the past few years, the bubble has continued to blow up the bubble, not only avoiding the bear market in the past two years, but also the stock price hit new highs. But in the near future, even if the stock index rebounds, they will only fluctuate back and forth at high levels. It can be predicted that the future development space will be smaller.
For the pharmaceutical sector, it has also won the favor of a large number of institutions in recent years, but in the future, there will be a great deal of differentiation. First of all, from the perspective of some biopharmaceutical sectors, it is to see who has successfully put into production after the completion of clinical trials. Because at present it only stays in the conceptual hype stage, but once there is room for improvement, it is expected to become stronger and stronger and even stand out. In addition, from the perspective of a 13.0% increase in the prices of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines, the Chinese medicine sector is worthy of attention because they are often lurking in the early stages and will generally have explosive power in the future. (Author: Pan Minli)
If we do a simple calculation, by October, the cumulative value of the current baseline CPI overflow of 5% has reached 6.7%, and in the future in November and December alone, it seems that the goal set by Premier Wen Jiabao is no longer met. Too realistic. However, due to the good harvest of the autumn crops, the whole year's macro-control, and the higher base in the last two months of last year, it is still expected to see a continuous decline in the CPI in the next two months. However, if the CPI slips below 4%, it can be assumed that it has fallen from higher inflation to moderate inflation. Therefore, to control inflation is only an initial success, and next year is still a long way to go.
In the stock market, the reason why there are so many professional organizations studying inflation is to observe whether there will be fine-tuning of tight monetary policy and related adjustment policies when the high inflation starts to show signs of decline, and finally decide the position of investment. On the other hand, it is to do some corresponding pre-judgment on the performance of the industry and enterprises, and then decide on the layout in various industries and corresponding key varieties.
For listed companies, after just publishing the third quarter report, most research institutions have already started to downgrade most companies, especially some large-cap heavyweights and constituent stocks. According to statistics, the ratio has been cut by half. This aspect is related to the need for corrections by the agency at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, it is related to the higher inflation situation this year.
So what kind of industry is benefiting from higher inflation? It is now in the stage of domestic economic correction. At the same time, inflation regulation has also achieved initial results. Therefore, in terms of the future, perhaps we should conduct more detailed analysis.
The fall in CPI in October this year was mainly due to the decline in prices of agricultural products and international bulk commodities. The general investor's reaction is that the agricultural sector may turn from stronger to weaker in the future. However, after pondering about the rise of nearly a year, various related sub-industries have benefited a lot and will inevitably be reflected in the report. At the same time, the No. 1 document next year will be agricultural science and technology, and it will be even more eye-catching against this sub-sector. This is the reason why the stocks of some kind of industry in the near future are constantly rebounding and strengthening.
Conversely, for the food and beverage industry, after the long-term operation of the institutions in the past few years, the bubble has continued to blow up the bubble, not only avoiding the bear market in the past two years, but also the stock price hit new highs. But in the near future, even if the stock index rebounds, they will only fluctuate back and forth at high levels. It can be predicted that the future development space will be smaller.
For the pharmaceutical sector, it has also won the favor of a large number of institutions in recent years, but in the future, there will be a great deal of differentiation. First of all, from the perspective of some biopharmaceutical sectors, it is to see who has successfully put into production after the completion of clinical trials. Because at present it only stays in the conceptual hype stage, but once there is room for improvement, it is expected to become stronger and stronger and even stand out. In addition, from the perspective of a 13.0% increase in the prices of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines, the Chinese medicine sector is worthy of attention because they are often lurking in the early stages and will generally have explosive power in the future. (Author: Pan Minli)
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