Meike **: US beans continue to weaken, domestic sentiment is slightly better

Overnight CBOT soybean November contract continued to close overcast, with a minimum of 1004 cents and a maximum of 1017.4 cents, closing at 1005.4 cents, and it closed down 0.44% overall. The electronic market continued to weaken. Currently, the US soybean market maintains a high volatility market and it is difficult to break through the market in the short term. DCE sided, Soybean (4002, 1.00, 0.02%) 1105 contract yesterday shocked harvest crosshairs. Opening 3999, the early stage period quickly rushed to the highest point of 4018, but failed to hold the offensive, with short entry, the price shocks down, and out of this week's new low of 3981, short-term profits in the late stage to leave the market, the period price It rose to close at 4002, with the overall decline slightly by 0.05%. It can be seen that the recent price is testing the 4000 range repeatedly, while the short-term strategy of short-selling and short-term depreciation does not over-position the low-end space. Around 4000 4000 points around a narrow range of oscillation. Fundamentally, the time will enter September, and the speculation of weather factors will gradually become weaker. However, the final yield and the determination of output are still in the eyes of investors, especially the current production forecast has become the main news. Last night, there were agencies that forecasted soybean production in the United States in 10/11 to be 3.39 billion bushels, although the agency lowered its estimates due to the recent dry weather in the east and the sudden death of soybeans in Iowa that may affect some production. The data, however, is still higher by 31 million bushels compared with the output of the 09/10 year. This shows that the high yield of US beans in the new year has been roughly determined. In addition to the pressure exerted by the high yield of US beans, the ability to support soybean prices in September is undoubtedly a speculation on South American soybean production. According to the Argentine agriculture minister, the country’s soybean production in 10/11 may decline slightly to 52 million tons, while the oil world’s new-year soybean production in Brazil also fell from 68.4 million tons to 66.5 million tons. It can be seen that in September the soybeans were in a long and short intertwined situation, and the strong demand and otherwise played a key role. However, the recent US soybean export situation has slowed down. In the absence of stimulus factors, the US plate oscillated lower. Overnight speculative funds sold 4000 soybean contracts. Domestically, the import profit between imported soybeans and domestic soybeans has been maintained at between 100-250 yuan/ton, which has led domestic manufacturers to maintain strong import enthusiasm. According to the US Department of Agriculture's statistical report, China is currently working on a new Soybean imports have increased by 30% compared to last year. Yesterday, the National Grain and Oil Information Center announced the import data for the estimated shipping period. Estimated imports of soybeans from August to December are 460, 450, 400, 350, and 3.5 million tons respectively. From the perspective of the market supply in the later period, the pressure is decreasing. However, for the current port, its supply pressure is still relatively large, and the current port inventory level is at a high of 6 million tons. The spot market remained relatively stable yesterday, and the buying and selling of the producing areas made its quotation practically meaningless. The execution of pre-contracts became the main transaction behavior. The average purchase price was 3,680 yuan/ton yesterday, up by 1 yuan from the previous day. The sales area was affected by the decrease in purchase volume. The partial market appeared to be out of stock, stimulating the sellers to increase their prices, but overall the transaction was still dull. The average sales price was 4,216 yuan/ton yesterday, up by 11 yuan/ton from the previous day. Regarding imported soybeans, the distribution of port soybeans was stable yesterday, but due to the high level of port stocks and the weak internal and external futures disk, there was no upward momentum. Among them, Shandong Port's distribution quotation was 3,650 yuan/ton. On the whole, the major pressures faced by the United States and China in the near future have come from the news that the new beans will go public. The main players in the spot market are already no longer snapping up old ones, and are waiting for the listing of new beans. This has made the recent spot market flat. From the domestic Soybean side, the shocks in recent days have been significant, and continuous late-rising also showed that the bears did not have the confidence to suppress the trend, the overall sentiment still exists. Therefore, the long-term trend of the medium-term and long-term recommendations remain unchanged, short-term support in the 3980 line is much short, the pressure is still short-term in the 4030 line.