China's massive purchase of U.S. corn triggers speculation

Current market analysts are also raising their forecast for China's corn imports. Sudakshina Unnikrishnan of Barclays Capital predicts that China will import about 5 million tons of corn during the 2011-2012 farm year. She said that if it was a month ago, she predicted that the import volume would be about 2 million tons.

Paul Christopher, an international market strategist at Wells Fargo, said you don't know when and where they will buy big, but they will definitely buy big.

US Department of Agriculture data showed that last week China purchased 540,000 tons of U.S. corn that was delivered after August, exceeding the Ministry of Agriculture’s forecast for purchasing 500,000 tons of China in the year. The news pushed up the settlement price of corn futures last Thursday and Friday to about 6.75 US dollars per bushel, making the corn futures market, which has been sluggish for three weeks, regain its vitality.

Today, traders believe that China is preparing to purchase millions of tons of U.S. corn, which will break the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast and keep the U.S. grain supply tight. At this point, American farmers are taking care of the maize crop that is expected to break through the harvest.

David C. Nelson, a global strategist at Rabobank, said that we think Chinese people currently need far more corn than they produce. Rabobank is the lender and investment banker of many of the world's largest food companies.

The massive sales of U.S. corn to so-called other “unknown destinations” (the U.S. Department of Agriculture will publish these places later) are increasing people’s speculation that more corn is being exported to China.

US food companies have always dreamed that China will turn to foreign crops in order to feed a huge population. But when will this happen? The western world is rarely lucky enough to guess this problem. In the mid-1990s, China's procurement boom not only triggered predictions that US growers would usher in rapid trade growth, but it even caused a certain degree of concern that Chinese demand would trigger a global food crisis. However, the wave of procurement was only temporary. China later exported corn to some Asian neighbors within a certain period of time.

What is changing now is that China’s population is getting richer. The economic success China has achieved is actually allowing more Chinese to start living in the middle class. For example, they have to drink milk from grain-fed cows, pork from corn-fed pigs, and use soybean oil. Fried foods etc.

Although China is currently one of the world's major agricultural nations, the ability of the Chinese government to support the Chinese population remains one of the most sensitive political issues. China is the largest producer of wheat and rice, and the second largest producer of corn is second only to the United States.

China implements a policy of self-sufficiency in food, which states that Chinese farmers will supply at least 95% of corn and wheat. However, China has recently become the world's largest soybean importer. Nearly a quarter of the soybeans produced in the United States are consumed by China.

Moreover, the Chinese government, which has always believed that cheap food is very important for maintaining domestic stability, is currently trying to curb inflation. China's retail food prices rose by 11.7% in May, which was largely driven by soaring pork prices. In response, the Chinese government is trying to encourage domestic pig breeders to adopt Western practices to feed pigs with high-efficiency feed made from soybeans and corn.

China has become a major buyer of global commodities, accounting for 21% of world corn consumption, 40% of copper, and 39% of cotton. It is supporting commodity prices from one aspect, and it also makes people more worried that such demand will increase food prices.

In recent months, with the United States, Russia, and other countries suffering from poor harvests due to droughts and floods, this concern is even more compelling. In 2010, due to a severe drought and a sudden increase in corn demand, China became the net importer for the first time in 14 years from a net exporter, buying about 1.5 million tons of corn from the international market.

The timing of China's new wave of procurement has established the country’s reputation as a savvy buyer from one aspect and shows Beijing’s strong influence in the world market. A government report on June 30 predicted that the harvest of corn in the United States this fall led to a sharp drop in corn prices. Due to China's buying, corn prices have recovered a large part of this week's decline.

Allison Nathan, managing director of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said that the Chinese have a lot of market influence when buying copper, soybeans and other commodities they lack; any commodity, When they think the price is worth it, they will buy it big.

China is willing to wait until corn prices fall and then buy in large quantities. In fact, it tells US food companies that even if the fruits of the harvest of US farmers this fall do not fit into their granaries, the grain market may not cool significantly. Traders said that the price of corn is supported at a price of US$6 per bushel. The reason behind this may be China’s buying. However, they said that if the price approaches US$8 per bushel again, China’s purchases may decrease.

China often passes Cargill Inc. and Bunge Ltd. Other food wholesalers buy corn, then ship it back home and store it in huge storage facilities across the country.

About 70% of these corn will enter the raw material industry. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of China, the industry used 74.5 million tons of corn last year, an increase of 20% from the previous year.

As planned, the US Department of Agriculture will provide the latest China corn import forecast in a report on corn on Tuesday. According to Shawn McCambridge, senior food analyst at Chicago brokerage Jefferies Bache, the USDA may increase its forecast from 3 million tons to 4 million tons.

Joe Glauber, chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, declined to describe Tuesday’s report, but he said the report is certainly talking about China’s recent corn purchases.

He said that the fact that the Chinese have entered this market is of great significance; we expect that they will play an increasing role in the corn market.

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