Double Festival will expire sugar or deduct new quotes

In the last five trading days, the main contract of Zheng Sugar futures contracted continuously and oscillated. The contract opened higher yesterday, but it did not extend the upward trend. Instead, it showed a downward trend and all the gains were retreated on that day.

Zheng Sugar Futures main contract 1201 is still at a record high. During the trading session on August 9, the price of sugar was spread across the highs of November of last year and February of this year, closing at 7,250 yuan. The two high points of the contract, 7198 yuan and 7225 yuan, were stepped on foot.

In the face of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day “double festival”, will the white sugar not be able to interpret a wave of prices? Xiao Weikai, a sugar analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures, said that the production of sugar concentrates from the beginning of November in the first year to the end of May of the following year, while consumption is consumed throughout the year. From the historical data, we can know that in the normal years, the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day “double festival” have always been the peak of white sugar consumption. During this period, the price of sugar is apt to rise and fall, or a new wave of market will be interpreted.

Partial adjustment is hard to find Zheng sugar bull power Yesterday, the price of 1201 Zheng sugar main contract opened higher at 7,500 yuan / ton, a rate of 1.39% or 103 yuan / ton. However, the post-high opening price did not continue its upward trend and turned into a declining trend. It closed at 7,399 yuan/ton, and basically all the gains were taken up on the same day. The daily position decreased by 25,346 contracts, and the daily trading volume also fell to below 900,000 hands.

Xiao Wei Kai, analyst of Huatai Great Wall Futures Sugar Co., Ltd., said that since entering August, Zheng Sugar has entered the range of 7200-7500 yuan/ton. During the period of the US debt crisis, the global financial market suffered a severe setback, but Zheng Sugar was relatively strong and there was no panic drop. On August 9th, the price dropped to 7075 yuan/ton and rebounded first. On August 12, it hit an intraday high of 7537. Yuan / ton. Under the background of the continuous high of new period prices, the state has twice thrown off storage to regulate the market supply and demand. The spot price of sugar remained at a high of 7,800 yuan/ton, with little drop. The period price was affected by throwing storage and was pressured at 7,500 yuan/ton.

Since Zheng sugar rebounded at the end of June, the upward trend has been well preserved. Xiao Weikai believes that it is difficult for local adjustments to shake the foundation of the bull market. The fundamental reason is that the supply and demand relationship supports the rise in prices. The active involvement of funds and active trading are the key factors that drive the price rise. The price of sugar will remain firm until the new crop season is opened.

Spot, according to Xiao Wei introduction, yesterday morning, the wholesale market was shock finishing trend, Guangxi main producing area spot price held steady, brokers reflect the general sales; sugar group sales at a smooth price. Among them, Nanning brokers offer 7,800 yuan / ton, quoted steady, sales in general. Liuzhou middlemen offer 7,750 yuan / ton, offer down 10 yuan / ton, sales in general.

3 factors affect the trend of Zheng Sugar Futures The recent impact on sugar futures comes from fundamentals, macroeconomics, and international markets, respectively.

Xiao Weikai said that in terms of fundamentals, when entering the autumn, the weather in the main producing areas in Guangxi has gradually become the main factor affecting sugarcane in the new cropping season. Drought and temperature directly affect the sugar accumulation in sugarcane and the height of the main stem; the planting area in the next crop season is also an influencing factor. one. On the macroeconomic front, the financial turmoil triggered by the US debt crisis is not yet over. It will also have an impact on the international financial market. The European debt issue has not yet been effectively resolved. The double-debt crisis has made the global economic situation extremely fragile. Domestic inflationary pressures remain. The central bank’s monetary policy, such as whether to continue raising interest rates in August, will directly affect the sugar market. In addition, the international raw sugar prices have reached a high level of shock, it will also directly affect the domestic sugar ups and downs.

The price of Zheng sugar 1201 will remain in the range of RMB 7200-7500/ton in the short term. In the context of a stable external environment, Zheng Sugar will easily rise and fall.

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