The price of agricultural products “swing upwards”

Yesterday, two Hefei citizens bought vegetables at the farmers' market. On that day, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, China's consumer price (CPI) rose by 4.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over September. Xinhua News Agency issued agricultural products (SZ:000061) Latest price: 22.16 1.79 7.47% Quotes Trends Company news Latest announcements Tracking the flow of funds Flowing stocks Stocks Alerting excellent stocks Forecasting the Dragons and Tigers The cotton price hike has received much attention recently. Recently, a series of agricultural products [22.16-7.47%] price increases and inflation expectations, like two whirlwinds, have skyrocketed. Experts believe that in the short term, China’s economy mainly looks at inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are too strong and lacks rationality, which is not conducive to market rational cohesion and formation, and is not conducive to the stable operation of agricultural product prices, and is not conducive to the country’s effective management of the overall level of inflation and effective control of economic operations. Urgent need guidance.

Upswinged, inflation is expected to increase. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, cotton prices have recently reached a daily limit, has fully crossed the threshold of 30,000 yuan per ton, is still a record high, becoming another concern for the price of agricultural products. Since the beginning of this year, the price of agricultural products in China has clearly shown the characteristics of “higher price increases, more varieties involved, and higher relay types”.

Since the beginning of this year, the bulk of agricultural products such as wheat, corn, cotton, vegetables, fruits, and sugar have shown significant gains. Smaller agricultural products such as garlic, mung beans, and ginger have also turned "on stage" with even more alarming increases. The phenomenon of increasing prices of agricultural products is so widespread and obvious that it directly affects the mentality of the operators.

In some parts of Shandong, the price increase of agricultural products is expected to be very strong. “Now, the agricultural products are on the rise and the food prices will certainly rise.” Shao Changyi, a farmer from Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province, said that the local wheat purchase price has climbed to the highest price of 2.06 yuan per kilogram, but he still has a pound of new wheat. And corn is not for sale. He is waiting for higher food prices.

From other perspectives such as online public opinion, it can also be observed that, at present, social inflation expectations have been very strong, and an anxiety and sense of crisis on inflation is expanding. In particular, the prices of food and residential products are people's rigid demand. Recently, they have continuously led the rise in CPI. The people feel the same, and the “resonance” has become increasingly strong.

Expected to strongly lead to price hikes Li Tiegang, vice president of the School of Economics at Shandong University, believes that, in fact, the current rise in prices is a structural rise. It is caused by rising food and housing prices, rather than general increases, that is, prices have risen significantly. .

However, he believes that the current strong expectations of social inflation, it is easy to lead to more commodities and sales prices follow suit, while the people will be more panic, competing to expand consumer spending, investment assets, commodity prices and consumer expectations spiral, and ultimately inflation expectations will be Complete self-realization, promote the overall rise in commodity prices, and eventually evolved into significant inflation.

The reporter learned that due to the psychological reluctance to sell goods, at present, the progress of the sale and sale of agricultural products such as wheat and cotton in some areas in Shandong is relatively slow. Due to the reduction in the circulation of agricultural products, coupled with the increase in the demand of some domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, the prices of many agricultural products in Shandong are currently firm. In Shandong, the largest cotton planting city in Shandong Province, the picking of cotton farmers has basically ended, but the current progress of the sale is only about 20%, which is a substantial decrease from the same period last year.

In the streets of Jinan, some small varieties of food such as Gan Li and Chinese wolfberry have also begun to increase their prices, which have risen by more than 30%. “Some owners have regained their feelings, and the prices of the varieties may be even more.” Some stall owners said that since the big family of commodities are all performing price increases and chorus, they can also follow suit, so why not?

The National Development and Reform Commission recently announced the monitoring of urban food retail prices in October. Nearly 80% of the 31 products monitored rose in price.

Inflation expectations management encounters new issues The Bank of China issued the “Three-quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report” recently. The core content is that the uncertainty of the current price trend is increasing, and there is still a need to strengthen the management of inflation expectations; the Chinese economy is in the long run the development mode and structural adjustment. Short-term mainly depends on inflation expectations.

Wang Baoliang, deputy director of the Department of Economic Forecasting of the State Information Center, also stated that he has continued to regard the relationship between maintaining “stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations” as the core task of macroeconomic regulation and control in 2011. Mainly affected by the changes in supply and demand and the increase in agricultural costs, coupled with the "resonance" effect of external factors, from the long-term trend, the trend of rising prices of agricultural products will not change.

He Fuhuang brilliant [4.25-2.75%] Group Corporation Shandong company director of market research Xu Chuanming and other people believe that in the process of agricultural product prices into the rising channel, there are four factors that affect agricultural product inflation expectations and its development trend: First, supply confidence. Affected by weather, natural disasters and other factors, the recent supply disturbances and demand disturbances are superimposed on one another, making the supply and demand pre-judgment an important factor that has recently affected the inflation expectations of agricultural products. The second is the rationality of the people. People's feelings are an important source of inflation expectations. Even if their feelings are actually not in line with the overall trend of prices, the current rise in prices of food and housing is closely related to people’s feelings. The third is the policy credibility. That is to say, the rising CPI keeps the public still confident about the government's expected inflation control targets. The fourth is the currency environment. In recent days, the central bank has determined that a moderately loose monetary environment has continued. Foreign economies have recently implemented quantitative easing monetary policy. Inflation expectations are likely to increase further under the already strong background.

Li Tiegang and others believe that at present, apart from continuing to make clear measures, guaranteeing production, and increasing confidence in supply, the government must also organize investigations, analyze and judge the current economic situation, issue a rational voice, and guide the people to take a reasonable view of the current price situation. Social public opinion and rational treatment of inflation expectations enhance their ability to tolerate inflation and prevent people from blindly following erroneous information and making inflation expectations even heavier. In particular, it guides people to rationally look at issues such as currency, which are closely related to inflation, and should not be silent on the focus of public concerns.

In addition, some people pointed out that the current inflation expectation is strong, partly because the level of social security in our country is still not high enough, people are more worried about their future life, especially low-income groups. In the short term, the state should pay close attention to “susceptible” people and stabilize their expectations. At the same time, they should crack down on “starting up” businesses and crack down on speculative and profit-taking behaviors that follow the trend of rising prices and arbitrary prices; in the long run, we should further improve and perfect the social security system. Reducing the public’s worry about spending on medical care, pensions, education, etc., and raising the public’s confidence in responding to rising prices.

With regard to rising prices, Li Tiegang, vice president of the School of Economics at Shandong University, said that in recent years, China has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy in response to the international financial crisis and cooperated with the national package of revitalization measures to play an important role in promoting economic growth. As China's economy gradually emerges from the shadow of the crisis, loose monetary policy gradually shows some negative effects, one of which is the upward trend in inflation.

Qiao Hong, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that high food prices are the main reason for the rising CPI. The research data from Goldman Sachs shows that the year-on-year increase in food prices may rise further in November, putting more pressure on the overall CPI inflation rate.

At the same time as food prices are high, the influence of tail-flipping factors has also formed an important support for the continued rise of CPI. In addition, the non-food CPI chain growth also continued its upward trend in September, reaching 1.6%. “The above new factors and carryover factors have pushed up the CPI by 4.4% in October,” said Zhang Zhiwei, a research fellow at China Gold.

Not only that, CICC pointed out in a recent analysis that from the external environment, global quantitative easing conditions, especially the new round of quantitative easing announced by the United States last week, will continue to support the upward movement of international commodity prices. Increased pressure on domestic input inflation. Xu Xiaonian, a professor at the China Europe International Business School, believes that the Fed's super-currency and push up global commodity prices will certainly have a greater impact on countries like China that rely on overseas resource markets.

On the 10th, Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an exclusive interview with the Chinese government network that the reasons for the current increase in prices mainly come from four aspects: First, excessive currency issuance, which is a common problem in the world. In particular, after the recent quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the prices of most commodities in the international market have risen sharply. Secondly, there are also some temporary factors. For example, the increase in vegetable prices this year is due to the disaster weather this year; In the process of industrialization and urbanization in our country, the labor, capital, and land resources are rapidly flowing to the cities, the production resources in rural areas are relatively reduced, and the labor costs in rural areas are rising. Fourth, the factors of hot money speculation. In the first half of this year, the price of mung beans, garlic, and cotton all increased, and all of them have the factors of funds speculation.